408.Can We Build an Accurate Product Demand Forecasting & Fraud Detection System in SAS While Identifying and Fixing Intentional Errors?

Product Demand Forecasting and Fraud Detection Analytics Using SAS with Intentional Error Handling

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HERE IN THIS PROJECT WE USED THESE SAS STATEMENTS —
DATA STEP | INPUT | DATALINES | FORMAT | SET | MERGE | IF-THEN-ELSE | LENGTH | STRIP | TRIM | CAT | CATX | PROPCASE | UPCASE | LOWCASE | COALESCE | ABS | MONTH | YEAR | MDY | INTNX | INTCK | PROC DATASETS DELETE | PROC SQL | PROC FREQ | PROC MEANS | PROC UNIVARIATE | PROC CORR | PROC TRANSPOSE  | PROC SGPLOT | SCATTER | REG | MACRO | %MEND | %UTILIZATION | %FRAUD_CHECK

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Table of Contents

1.     Introduction

2.     Business Context

3.     Project Objectives

4.     Dataset Design Structure

5.     Raw Data Creation with Intentional Errors

6.     Error Identification & Explanation

7.     Corrected Full-Length SAS Code

8.     Data Transformation & Feature Engineering

9.     Forecast Accuracy Calculation

10.  Utilization Classification Macro

11.  Fraud Detection Logic Macro

12.  Statistical Analysis (PROC MEANS, UNIVARIATE, CORR)

13.  SQL-Based Analysis

14.  Visualization (PROC SGPLOT)

15.  Dataset Management (TRANSPOSE, DELETE)

16.  Why Each Procedure Is Used

17. 12 Key Points About The Project

18.  Conclusion

1. Introduction

Product demand forecasting is a critical analytics problem in supply chain management. Organizations rely on forecast models to estimate future sales demand and align procurement, production, and inventory accordingly.

However:

·       Forecasts may be inaccurate

·       Inventory may be underutilized or overstocked

·       Fraudulent sales patterns may distort actual data

·       Data quality issues may cause incorrect reporting

In this project, we simulate a real-world product demand forecasting environment using Base SAS, PROC SQL, statistical procedures, macros, and data management techniques.

We will:

·       Create a dataset (15+ observations)

·       Introduce intentional errors

·       Identify and correct them

·       Apply forecasting accuracy calculations

·       Perform fraud detection logic

·       Use date functions (MDY, INTCK, INTNX)

·       Apply numeric & character functions

·       Use TRANSPOSE, SET

·       Perform statistical and correlation analysis

·       Generate visualizations

2. Business Context

Assume a retail company operates across 4 regions:

·       North

·       South

·       East

·       West

Each month, the company:

·       Forecasts demand for products

·       Records actual sales

·       Tracks inventory levels

·       Calculates forecast error

·       Measures accuracy percentage

The company wants to answer:

·       Which region has high forecast error?

·       Which products are underutilized?

·       Is there suspicious sales inflation?

·       How accurate are forecasts?

·       Is inventory aligned with demand?

3.Dataset Structure

Variable

Description

Product_ID

Unique Product Code

Region

Sales Region

Forecasted_Demand

Predicted Units

Actual_Sales

Sold Units

Forecast_Error

Difference

Inventory_Level

Current Inventory

Accuracy_Score

Forecast Accuracy %

Sales_Date

Transaction Date

Fraud_Flag

Fraud Indicator

4. RAW DATA CREATION (WITH INTENTIONAL ERRORS)

data demand_raw;

 input Product_ID $ Region $ Forecasted_Demand Actual_Sales Inventory_Level 

      Sales_Date : date9.;

 format Sales_Date date9.;

 datalines;

P101 North 500 520 600 01JAN2025

P102 South 450 430 500 15JAN2025

P103 East 600 580 650 30JAN2025

P104 West 700 . 750 10FEB2025

P105 North 800 900 820 25FEB2025

P106 South -200 300 400 05MAR2025

P107 East 650 640 660 20MAR2025

P108 West 720 710 700 05APR2025

P109 North 550 0 580 15APR2025

P110 South 480 490 510 30APR2025

P111 East 620 610 630 10MAY2025

P112 West 710 730 720 20MAY2025

P113 North 900 950 910 05JUN2025

P114 South 500 10000 520 15JUN2025

P115 East 600 580 610 25JUN2025

;

run;

proc print data=demand_raw;

run;

OUTPUT:

ObsProduct_IDRegionForecasted_DemandActual_SalesInventory_LevelSales_Date
1P101North50052060001JAN2025
2P102South45043050015JAN2025
3P103East60058065030JAN2025
4P104West700.75010FEB2025
5P105North80090082025FEB2025
6P106South-20030040005MAR2025
7P107East65064066020MAR2025
8P108West72071070005APR2025
9P109North550058015APR2025
10P110South48049051030APR2025
11P111East62061063010MAY2025
12P112West71073072020MAY2025
13P113North90095091005JUN2025
14P114South5001000052015JUN2025
15P115East60058061025JUN2025

❗ Intentional Errors

·  Missing Actual_Sales (P104)

·  Negative Forecast (P106)

·  Zero Sales (P109)

·  Extremely High Sales (P114)

·  Forecast_Error not calculated

·  Accuracy not calculated 

What It Does

Creates the initial forecasting dataset with 15+ observations.

 Why Used

DATA step is used to manually create structured raw data.

 Business Meaning

Simulates real forecasting records including:

·       Forecast

·       Actual sales

·       Inventory

·       Sales date

Intentional errors were included:

·       Missing sales

·       Negative forecast

·       Extremely high sales

·       Zero sales

5. ERROR IDENTIFICATION

Missing Sales

proc means data=demand_raw n nmiss;

run;

OUTPUT:

The MEANS Procedure

VariableNN Miss
Forecasted_Demand
Actual_Sales
Inventory_Level
Sales_Date
15
14
15
15
0
1
0
0

Outlier Detection

proc univariate data=demand_raw;

 var Actual_Sales;

run;

OUTPUT:

The UNIVARIATE Procedure

Variable: Actual_Sales

Moments
N14Sum Weights14
Mean1245.71429Sum Observations17440
Std Deviation2530.79712Variance6404934.07
Skewness3.68364406Kurtosis13.69523
Uncorrected SS104989400Corrected SS83264142.9
Coeff Variation203.160319Std Error Mean676.383981
Basic Statistical Measures
LocationVariability
Mean1245.714Std Deviation2531
Median595.000Variance6404934
Mode580.000Range10000
  Interquartile Range240.00000
Tests for Location: Mu0=0
TestStatisticp Value
Student's tt1.841726Pr > |t|0.0884
SignM6.5Pr >= |M|0.0002
Signed RankS45.5Pr >= |S|0.0002
Quantiles (Definition 5)
LevelQuantile
100% Max10000
99%10000
95%10000
90%950
75% Q3730
50% Median595
25% Q1490
10%300
5%0
1%0
0% Min0
Extreme Observations
LowestHighest
ValueObsValueObs
097108
300673012
43029005
4901095013
52011000014
Missing Values
Missing
Value
CountPercent Of
All ObsMissing Obs
.16.67100.00

6. CORRECTED FULL-LENGTH DATA PROCESSING CODE

data demand_clean;

 set demand_raw;

 Product_ID = strip(upcase(Product_ID));

 Region = propcase(Region);

 if Forecasted_Demand < 0 then Forecasted_Demand = .;

 if Actual_Sales = . then Actual_Sales = 0;

 Forecast_Error = Actual_Sales - Forecasted_Demand;

 Accuracy_Score = (1 - abs(Forecast_Error)/Forecasted_Demand)*100;

 Month = month(Sales_Date);

 Year = year(Sales_Date);

 Month_Start = intnx('month', Sales_Date, 0, 'b');

 Month_End   = intnx('month', Sales_Date, 0, 'e');

 Months_Since_Start = intck('month', mdy(1,1,2025), Sales_Date);

 format Month_Start Month_End date9.;

run;

proc print data=demand_clean;

run;

OUTPUT:

ObsProduct_IDRegionForecasted_DemandActual_SalesInventory_LevelSales_DateForecast_ErrorAccuracy_ScoreMonthYearMonth_StartMonth_EndMonths_Since_Start
1P101North50052060001JAN20252096.001202501JAN202531JAN20250
2P102South45043050015JAN2025-2095.561202501JAN202531JAN20250
3P103East60058065030JAN2025-2096.671202501JAN202531JAN20250
4P104West700075010FEB2025-7000.002202501FEB202528FEB20251
5P105North80090082025FEB202510087.502202501FEB202528FEB20251
6P106South.30040005MAR2025..3202501MAR202531MAR20252
7P107East65064066020MAR2025-1098.463202501MAR202531MAR20252
8P108West72071070005APR2025-1098.614202501APR202530APR20253
9P109North550058015APR2025-5500.004202501APR202530APR20253
10P110South48049051030APR20251097.924202501APR202530APR20253
11P111East62061063010MAY2025-1098.395202501MAY202531MAY20254
12P112West71073072020MAY20252097.185202501MAY202531MAY20254
13P113North90095091005JUN20255094.446202501JUN202530JUN20255
14P114South5001000052015JUN20259500-1800.006202501JUN202530JUN20255
15P115East60058061025JUN2025-2096.676202501JUN202530JUN20255

Explanation of Corrections:

1.STRIP + UPCASE

Removes extra spaces and standardizes product codes.

2.PROPCASE

Standardizes region names.

3.Negative Forecast Fix

Negative demand is unrealistic → converted to missing.

4.Missing Sales

Replaced with zero for safe calculation.

5. Forecast Error

Actual - Forecast.

6. Accuracy Formula

Industry standard forecast accuracy formula.

·  ABS( ) → Absolute error

·  MONTH( ) → Extract month

·  YEAR( ) → Extract year

7. UTILIZATION CLASSIFICATION MACRO

%macro utilization;

data demand_final;

 set demand_clean;

 Utilization_Ratio = Actual_Sales / Inventory_Level;

 length Utilization_Class $20;

 if Utilization_Ratio > 0.9 then Utilization_Class = "High";

 else if Utilization_Ratio > 0.7 then Utilization_Class = "Medium";

 else Utilization_Class = "Low";

run;

proc print data=demand_final;

run;

%mend;


%utilization;

OUTPUT:

ObsProduct_IDRegionForecasted_DemandActual_SalesInventory_LevelSales_DateForecast_ErrorAccuracy_ScoreMonthYearMonth_StartMonth_EndMonths_Since_StartUtilization_RatioUtilization_Class
1P101North50052060001JAN20252096.001202501JAN202531JAN202500.8667Medium
2P102South45043050015JAN2025-2095.561202501JAN202531JAN202500.8600Medium
3P103East60058065030JAN2025-2096.671202501JAN202531JAN202500.8923Medium
4P104West700075010FEB2025-7000.002202501FEB202528FEB202510.0000Low
5P105North80090082025FEB202510087.502202501FEB202528FEB202511.0976High
6P106South.30040005MAR2025..3202501MAR202531MAR202520.7500Medium
7P107East65064066020MAR2025-1098.463202501MAR202531MAR202520.9697High
8P108West72071070005APR2025-1098.614202501APR202530APR202531.0143High
9P109North550058015APR2025-5500.004202501APR202530APR202530.0000Low
10P110South48049051030APR20251097.924202501APR202530APR202530.9608High
11P111East62061063010MAY2025-1098.395202501MAY202531MAY202540.9683High
12P112West71073072020MAY20252097.185202501MAY202531MAY202541.0139High
13P113North90095091005JUN20255094.446202501JUN202530JUN202551.0440High
14P114South5001000052015JUN20259500-1800.006202501JUN202530JUN2025519.2308High
15P115East60058061025JUN2025-2096.676202501JUN202530JUN202550.9508High

What It Does

Classifies inventory utilization.

Why Used

Automates classification logic.

Business Meaning

Identifies:

·       Overstock (Low utilization)

·       Optimal stock (Medium)

·       Risk of stockout (High)

8. FRAUD DETECTION MACRO

%macro fraud_check;

data fraud_data;

 set demand_final;

 length Fraud_Flag $10;

 if Actual_Sales > 3*Forecasted_Demand then Fraud_Flag="Yes";

 else Fraud_Flag="No";

run;

proc print data=fraud_data;

run;

%mend;


%fraud_check;

OUTPUT:

ObsProduct_IDRegionForecasted_DemandActual_SalesInventory_LevelSales_DateForecast_ErrorAccuracy_ScoreMonthYearMonth_StartMonth_EndMonths_Since_StartUtilization_RatioUtilization_ClassFraud_Flag
1P101North50052060001JAN20252096.001202501JAN202531JAN202500.8667MediumNo
2P102South45043050015JAN2025-2095.561202501JAN202531JAN202500.8600MediumNo
3P103East60058065030JAN2025-2096.671202501JAN202531JAN202500.8923MediumNo
4P104West700075010FEB2025-7000.002202501FEB202528FEB202510.0000LowNo
5P105North80090082025FEB202510087.502202501FEB202528FEB202511.0976HighNo
6P106South.30040005MAR2025..3202501MAR202531MAR202520.7500MediumYes
7P107East65064066020MAR2025-1098.463202501MAR202531MAR202520.9697HighNo
8P108West72071070005APR2025-1098.614202501APR202530APR202531.0143HighNo
9P109North550058015APR2025-5500.004202501APR202530APR202530.0000LowNo
10P110South48049051030APR20251097.924202501APR202530APR202530.9608HighNo
11P111East62061063010MAY2025-1098.395202501MAY202531MAY202540.9683HighNo
12P112West71073072020MAY20252097.185202501MAY202531MAY202541.0139HighNo
13P113North90095091005JUN20255094.446202501JUN202530JUN202551.0440HighNo
14P114South5001000052015JUN20259500-1800.006202501JUN202530JUN2025519.2308HighYes
15P115East60058061025JUN2025-2096.676202501JUN202530JUN202550.9508HighNo

What It Does

Flags suspicious sales spikes.

Why Used

Detects abnormal patterns.

Business Meaning

Sales > 3x forecast may indicate:

·       Data manipulation

·       Reporting error

·       Fraud activity

9. SQL ANALYSIS

proc sql;

 create table summary_data as

 select Region,

       avg(Actual_Sales) as Avg_Sales,

       avg(Forecasted_Demand) as Avg_Forecast,

       avg(Accuracy_Score) as Avg_Accuracy

 from fraud_data

 group by Region;

quit;

proc print data=summary_data;

run;

OUTPUT:

ObsRegionAvg_SalesAvg_ForecastAvg_Accuracy
1East602.5617.50097.545
2North592.5687.50069.486
3South2805.0476.667-535.509
4West480.0710.00065.265

10. PROC FREQ

proc freq data=fraud_data;

 tables Region*Fraud_Flag;

run;

OUTPUT:

The FREQ Procedure

Frequency
Percent
Row Pct
Col Pct
Table of Region by Fraud_Flag
RegionFraud_Flag
NoYesTotal
East
4
26.67
100.00
30.77
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
4
26.67
 
 
North
4
26.67
100.00
30.77
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
4
26.67
 
 
South
2
13.33
50.00
15.38
2
13.33
50.00
100.00
4
26.67
 
 
West
3
20.00
100.00
23.08
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
3
20.00
 
 
Total
13
86.67
2
13.33
15
100.00

11. PROC MEANS

proc means data=fraud_data mean std min max;

 var Forecasted_Demand Actual_Sales Accuracy_Score;

run;

OUTPUT:

The MEANS Procedure

VariableMeanStd DevMinimumMaximum
Forecasted_Demand
Actual_Sales
Accuracy_Score
627.1428571
1162.67
-53.0433682
129.6402461
2459.86
504.0110229
450.0000000
0
-1800.00
900.0000000
10000.00
98.6111111

12. PROC UNIVARIATE

proc univariate data=fraud_data;

 var Forecast_Error;

 histogram Forecast_Error;

run;

OUTPUT:

The UNIVARIATE Procedure

Variable: Forecast_Error

Moments
N14Sum Weights14
Mean597.142857Sum Observations8360
Std Deviation2573.01508Variance6620406.59
Skewness3.68631118Kurtosis13.7163928
Uncorrected SS91057400Corrected SS86065285.7
Coeff Variation430.887693Std Error Mean687.667205
Basic Statistical Measures
LocationVariability
Mean597.1429Std Deviation2573
Median-10.0000Variance6620407
Mode-20.0000Range10200
  Interquartile Range40.00000

Note: The mode displayed is the smallest of 2 modes with a count of 3.

Tests for Location: Mu0=0
TestStatisticp Value
Student's tt0.86836Pr > |t|0.4009
SignM-1Pr >= |M|0.7905
Signed RankS-1Pr >= |S|0.9657
Quantiles (Definition 5)
LevelQuantile
100% Max9500
99%9500
95%9500
90%100
75% Q320
50% Median-10
25% Q1-20
10%-550
5%-700
1%-700
0% Min-700
Extreme Observations
LowestHighest
ValueObsValueObs
-7004201
-55092012
-20155013
-2031005
-202950014
Missing Values
Missing
Value
CountPercent Of
All ObsMissing Obs
.16.67100.00

The UNIVARIATE Procedure

Histogram for Forecast_Error

13. PROC CORR

proc corr data=fraud_data;

 var Forecasted_Demand Actual_Sales Inventory_Level Accuracy_Score;

run;

 OUTPUT:

The CORR Procedure

4 Variables:Forecasted_Demand Actual_Sales Inventory_Level Accuracy_Score
Simple Statistics
VariableNMeanStd DevSumMinimumMaximum
Forecasted_Demand14627.14286129.640258780450.00000900.00000
Actual_Sales151163246017440010000
Inventory_Level15637.33333131.609099560400.00000910.00000
Accuracy_Score14-53.04337504.01102-742.60716-180098.61111
Pearson Correlation Coefficients
Prob > |r| under H0: Rho=0
Number of Observations
 Forecasted_DemandActual_SalesInventory_LevelAccuracy_Score
Forecasted_Demand
1.00000
 
14
-0.22556
0.4381
14
0.97736
<.0001
14
0.28222
0.3283
14
Actual_Sales
-0.22556
0.4381
14
1.00000
 
15
-0.18877
0.5004
15
-0.98561
<.0001
14
Inventory_Level
0.97736
<.0001
14
-0.18877
0.5004
15
1.00000
 
15
0.32319
0.2597
14
Accuracy_Score
0.28222
0.3283
14
-0.98561
<.0001
14
0.32319
0.2597
14
1.00000
 
14

What It Does

Calculates correlation matrix.

Why Used

Identifies relationships between variables.

14. TRANSPOSE

proc transpose data=summary_data out=transposed_summary;

 by Region NotSorted;

 var Avg_Sales Avg_Forecast Avg_Accuracy;

run;

proc print data=transposed_summary;

run;

OUTPUT:

ObsRegion_NAME_COL1
1EastAvg_Sales602.50
2EastAvg_Forecast617.50
3EastAvg_Accuracy97.55
4NorthAvg_Sales592.50
5NorthAvg_Forecast687.50
6NorthAvg_Accuracy69.49
7SouthAvg_Sales2805.00
8SouthAvg_Forecast476.67
9SouthAvg_Accuracy-535.51
10WestAvg_Sales480.00
11WestAvg_Forecast710.00
12WestAvg_Accuracy65.26

What It Does

Converts rows to columns.

Why Used

For reporting format change.

15. VISUALIZATION

proc sgplot data=fraud_data;

 scatter x=Forecasted_Demand y=Actual_Sales;

 reg x=Forecasted_Demand y=Actual_Sales;

run;

OUTPUT:

The SGPlot Procedure

 What It Does

Creates scatter plot with regression line.

Why Used

Visual validation of forecast model.

16. PROC DATASETS – Clean Workspace

proc datasets library=work nolist;

 delete demand_clean demand_final fraud_data summary_data;

quit;

LOG:

NOTE: Deleting WORK.DEMAND_CLEAN (memtype=DATA).
NOTE: Deleting WORK.DEMAND_FINAL (memtype=DATA).
NOTE: Deleting WORK.FRAUD_DATA (memtype=DATA).
NOTE: Deleting WORK.SUMMARY_DATA (memtype=DATA).


Why Each Procedure Is Used

Procedure

Purpose

PROC SQL

Aggregation & summary

PROC FREQ

Categorical analysis

PROC MEANS

Summary statistics

PROC UNIVARIATE

Distribution & outlier

PROC CORR

Correlation

PROC SGPLOT

Visualization

PROC TRANSPOSE

Restructure data

PROC APPEND

Add datasets

PROC DATASETS DELETE

Clean workspace


17. 12 Key Points About THe Project
  1. The project simulates a real-world retail demand forecasting environment across multiple regions, making it practical and business-oriented rather than purely theoretical.
  2. A structured dataset was created with key variables such as Product_ID, Region, Forecasted_Demand, Actual_Sales, Inventory_Level, Forecast_Error, Accuracy_Score, Sales_Date, and Fraud_Flag to reflect real supply chain reporting systems.
  3. Multiple intentional data issues were introduced, including missing sales values, negative forecasts, zero sales, and extremely high sales, to demonstrate error identification and correction techniques.
  4. Data cleaning was performed using character functions like STRIP( ), UPCASE( ), and PROPCASE( ) to standardize product and region values and ensure consistent reporting.
  5. Numeric validation logic was applied to handle unrealistic values, such as converting negative forecasts to missing and replacing missing sales with zero to prevent calculation failures.
  6. Forecast performance was evaluated using calculated metrics such as Forecast_Error (Actual − Forecast) and Accuracy_Score percentage, providing measurable forecasting efficiency.
  7. Date intelligence functions like MDY( ), INTNX( ), and INTCK( ) were used to derive monthly boundaries and time differences, enabling time-based analysis and reporting.
  8. Inventory utilization was automated through a macro that classified products into High, Medium, and Low utilization categories based on the sales-to-inventory ratio.
  9. Fraud detection logic was implemented using a macro to flag abnormal sales spikes where Actual_Sales significantly exceeded Forecasted_Demand.
  10. Analytical procedures such as PROC SQL, PROC MEANS, PROC UNIVARIATE, PROC FREQ, and PROC CORR were used to generate summaries, distributions, correlations, and categorical insights.
  11. Visualization using PROC SGPLOT helped validate the relationship between forecasted demand and actual sales through scatter plots and regression lines.
  12. Dataset management techniques including TRANSPOSE, and PROC DATASETS DELETE ensured clean workflow execution, structured reporting, and scalable production-level processing.

18. Conclusion:

This project demonstrates how a structured SAS-based analytics workflow can transform raw forecasting data into meaningful business insights. By creating a realistic multi-region product demand dataset and intentionally introducing errors, the project highlights the importance of data validation, cleansing, and correction before analysis. Forecast error and accuracy calculations provide measurable indicators of model performance, while date functions enable time-based tracking. Inventory utilization classification supports stock optimization, and fraud detection logic identifies abnormal sales spikes that may indicate reporting issues or manipulation. Statistical procedures such as PROC MEANS, PROC UNIVARIATE, PROC FREQ, PROC CORR, and PROC SQL deliver descriptive, distributional, and relational insights. Visualization through PROC SGPLOT strengthens analytical interpretation. Overall, the project integrates data management, statistical evaluation, automation via macros, and business logic into a single scalable framework. It reflects real-world supply chain analytics practices and demonstrates strong  SAS programming competency suitable for enterprise-level forecasting and fraud monitoring environments.


SAS INTERVIEW QUESTIONS

·  How do you handle missing values?

·  What is reconciliation?

·  What is log checking?


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About the Author:

SAS Learning Hub is a data analytics and SAS programming platform focused on clinical, financial, and real-world data analysis. The content is created by professionals with academic training in Pharmaceutics and hands-on experience in Base SAS, PROC SQL, Macros, SDTM, and ADaM, providing practical and industry-relevant SAS learning resources.


Disclaimer:

The datasets and analysis in this article are created for educational and demonstration purposes only. They do not represent FRAUD DETECTION SYSTEM data.


Our Mission:

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This project is suitable for:

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·  Bloggers writing about analytics 

·  Clinical SAS Programmer

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·  Regulatory Data Validator


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