303.Did Seasons Control Market Activity and Temple Footfall in 1855 India?A Sas Study

Did Seasons Control Market Activity and Temple Footfall in 1855 India?A Sas Study

options nodate nonumber nocenter;

1) FORMATS 

proc format;

  value $mallfmt

    'Bazaar'            = 'Urban Bazaar'

    'Haat'              = 'Weekly Haat'

    'RoyalArcade'       = 'Princely/Royal Arcade'

    'CantonmentMall'    = 'Cantonment Arcade'

    'CaravanseraiCourt' = 'Caravanserai Court';

  value $regfmt

    'North'   = 'Northern India'

    'East'    = 'Eastern India'

    'West'    = 'Western India'

    'South'   = 'Southern India'

    'Central' = 'Central India';

run;

LOG:

NOTE: Format $MALLFMT has been output.

NOTE: Format $REGFMT has been output.

2) BASE DATA 

data hist_mall_1855_base;

    length MallType $20 Region $10 Activities $50 Season $8;

    input Date :yymmdd10. MallType :$20. Region :$10. Activities :& $50.

          Footfall;

    format Date date9.

           MallType $mallfmt.

           Region   $regfmt.;

datalines;

1855-01-01 Bazaar           North    "Winter fairs & folk theatre"         820

1855-02-01 Haat             East     "Weavers' conclaves & kirtans"        760

1855-03-01 RoyalArcade      West     "Spring courtly soirees"              980

1855-04-01 CantonmentMall   South    "Colonial concerts & promenades"      910

1855-05-01 CaravanseraiCourt Central "Caravans & storytellers"             700

1855-06-01 Bazaar           East     "Monsoon prep & craft guilds"         650

1855-07-01 Haat             North    "Monsoon haat & folk music"           690

1855-08-01 RoyalArcade      Central  "Pre-festival exhibitions"            930

1855-09-01 CantonmentMall   West     "Ganesh festivities & parades"       1050

1855-10-01 CaravanseraiCourt South   "Dussehra/Diwali bazaars"            1180

;

run;

proc print data=hist_mall_1855_base;

run;

OUTPUT:

Obs	MallType	Region	Activities	Season	Date	Footfall
1	Urban Bazaar	Northern India	"Winter fairs & folk theatre"		01JAN1855	820
2	Weekly Haat	Eastern India	"Weavers' conclaves & kirtans"		01FEB1855	760
3	Princely/Royal Arcade	Western India	"Spring courtly soirees"		01MAR1855	980
4	Cantonment Arcade	Southern India	"Colonial concerts & promenades"		01APR1855	910
5	Caravanserai Court	Central India	"Caravans & storytellers"		01MAY1855	700
6	Urban Bazaar	Eastern India	"Monsoon prep & craft guilds"		01JUN1855	650
7	Weekly Haat	Northern India	"Monsoon haat & folk music"		01JUL1855	690
8	Princely/Royal Arcade	Central India	"Pre-festival exhibitions"		01AUG1855	930
9	Cantonment Arcade	Western India	"Ganesh festivities & parades"		01SEP1855	1050
10	Caravanserai Court	Southern India	"Dussehra/Diwali bazaars"		01OCT1855	1180

3) SEASONAL DERIVATION (DATA step)

data hist_mall_1855;

  set hist_mall_1855_base;

  length Season $8;

  month = month(Date);

  if month in (3,4,9,10,11) then Season = 'Peak';

  else Season = 'Off-Peak';

  if Season='Peak' then SeasonalIndex = 1.20;

  else SeasonalIndex = 0.85;

  AdjFootfall = round(Footfall * SeasonalIndex, 1);

run;

proc print data=hist_mall_1855;

run;

OUTPUT:

Obs	MallType	Region	Activities	Season	Date	Footfall	month	SeasonalIndex	AdjFootfall
1	Urban Bazaar	Northern India	"Winter fairs & folk theatre"	Off-Peak	01JAN1855	820	1	0.85	697
2	Weekly Haat	Eastern India	"Weavers' conclaves & kirtans"	Off-Peak	01FEB1855	760	2	0.85	646
3	Princely/Royal Arcade	Western India	"Spring courtly soirees"	Peak	01MAR1855	980	3	1.20	1176
4	Cantonment Arcade	Southern India	"Colonial concerts & promenades"	Peak	01APR1855	910	4	1.20	1092
5	Caravanserai Court	Central India	"Caravans & storytellers"	Off-Peak	01MAY1855	700	5	0.85	595
6	Urban Bazaar	Eastern India	"Monsoon prep & craft guilds"	Off-Peak	01JUN1855	650	6	0.85	553
7	Weekly Haat	Northern India	"Monsoon haat & folk music"	Off-Peak	01JUL1855	690	7	0.85	587
8	Princely/Royal Arcade	Central India	"Pre-festival exhibitions"	Off-Peak	01AUG1855	930	8	0.85	791
9	Cantonment Arcade	Western India	"Ganesh festivities & parades"	Peak	01SEP1855	1050	9	1.20	1260
10	Caravanserai Court	Southern India	"Dussehra/Diwali bazaars"	Peak	01OCT1855	1180	10	1.20	1416

4) MOVING AVERAGES WITH PROC SQL 

/* MA3 OVERALL (3-row rolling average by date) */

/* AND MA3 BY MALLTYPE */

proc sql;

    create table hist_sql_ma as

    select 

        a.Date,

        a.MallType,

        a.Region,

        a.Activities,

        a.Footfall,

        a.AdjFootfall,

        /* ---- OVERALL MA3 ---- */

        ( select mean(d.AdjFootfall)

            from hist_mall_1855 d

            where d.Date between intnx('month', a.Date, -2, 'same')

                             and a.Date

        ) as MA3_Overall,

        /* ---- MA3 BY MallType ---- */

        ( select mean(e.AdjFootfall)

            from hist_mall_1855 e

            where e.MallType = a.MallType

              and e.Date between intnx('month', a.Date, -2, 'same')

                             and a.Date

        ) as MA3_ByType

    from hist_mall_1855 a

    order by Date, MallType;

quit;

proc print data=hist_sql_ma;

run;

OUTPUT:

Obs	Date	MallType	Region	Activities	Footfall	AdjFootfall	MA3_Overall	MA3_ByType
1	01JAN1855	Urban Bazaar	Northern India	"Winter fairs & folk theatre"	820	697	697.00	697
2	01FEB1855	Weekly Haat	Eastern India	"Weavers' conclaves & kirtans"	760	646	671.50	646
3	01MAR1855	Princely/Royal Arcade	Western India	"Spring courtly soirees"	980	1176	839.67	1176
4	01APR1855	Cantonment Arcade	Southern India	"Colonial concerts & promenades"	910	1092	971.33	1092
5	01MAY1855	Caravanserai Court	Central India	"Caravans & storytellers"	700	595	954.33	595
6	01JUN1855	Urban Bazaar	Eastern India	"Monsoon prep & craft guilds"	650	553	746.67	553
7	01JUL1855	Weekly Haat	Northern India	"Monsoon haat & folk music"	690	587	578.33	587
8	01AUG1855	Princely/Royal Arcade	Central India	"Pre-festival exhibitions"	930	791	643.67	791
9	01SEP1855	Cantonment Arcade	Western India	"Ganesh festivities & parades"	1050	1260	879.33	1260
10	01OCT1855	Caravanserai Court	Southern India	"Dussehra/Diwali bazaars"	1180	1416	1155.67	1416

5) PROC EXPAND-LIKE TRANSFORMS VIA PURE DATA STEP

proc sort data=hist_sql_ma out=hist_sorted;

  by MallType Date;

run;

proc print data=hist_sorted;

run;

OUTPUT:

Obs	Date	MallType	Region	Activities	Footfall	AdjFootfall	MA3_Overall	MA3_ByType
1	01JAN1855	Urban Bazaar	Northern India	"Winter fairs & folk theatre"	820	697	697.00	697
2	01JUN1855	Urban Bazaar	Eastern India	"Monsoon prep & craft guilds"	650	553	746.67	553
3	01APR1855	Cantonment Arcade	Southern India	"Colonial concerts & promenades"	910	1092	971.33	1092
4	01SEP1855	Cantonment Arcade	Western India	"Ganesh festivities & parades"	1050	1260	879.33	1260
5	01MAY1855	Caravanserai Court	Central India	"Caravans & storytellers"	700	595	954.33	595
6	01OCT1855	Caravanserai Court	Southern India	"Dussehra/Diwali bazaars"	1180	1416	1155.67	1416
7	01FEB1855	Weekly Haat	Eastern India	"Weavers' conclaves & kirtans"	760	646	671.50	646
8	01JUL1855	Weekly Haat	Northern India	"Monsoon haat & folk music"	690	587	578.33	587
9	01MAR1855	Princely/Royal Arcade	Western India	"Spring courtly soirees"	980	1176	839.67	1176
10	01AUG1855	Princely/Royal Arcade	Central India	"Pre-festival exhibitions"	930	791	643.67	791

%macro rolling_transforms(ds_in=, ds_out=, groupvar=MallType, datevar=Date,

                          x=AdjFootfall, window=3);

data &ds_out;

  set &ds_in;

  by &groupvar &datevar;

  retain lag1_x cumsum_x count_in_grp

         q1 q2 q3

         ;

  if first.&groupvar then do;

    lag1_x=.;

    cumsum_x=0;

    count_in_grp=0;

    q1=.; q2=.; q3=.;

  end;

  lag1_x = lag1_x;           

  diff1  = .;               

  pctchg = .;              

  count_in_grp + 1;

  cumsum_x + &x;

  if count_in_grp=1 then do;

    diff1  = .;

    pctchg = .;

  end;

  else do;

    diff1  = &x - lag1_x;

    if lag1_x ne 0 then pctchg = 100 * (&x - lag1_x) / lag1_x;

    else pctchg = .;

  end;

  q1=q2; q2=q3; q3=&x;

  if count_in_grp>=&window then MA3_DataStep = mean(of q1-q3);

  else MA3_DataStep = .;

  lag1_x = &x;

  CUMSUM = cumsum_x;

run;

proc print data=&ds_out;run;

%mend rolling_transforms;

%rolling_transforms(ds_in=hist_sorted, ds_out=hist_expand_like,

                    groupvar=MallType, datevar=Date, x=AdjFootfall, window=3);

OUTPUT:

Obs	Date	MallType	Region	Activities	Footfall	AdjFootfall	MA3_Overall	MA3_ByType	lag1_x	cumsum_x	count_in_grp	q1	q2	q3	diff1	pctchg	MA3_DataStep	CUMSUM
1	01JAN1855	Urban Bazaar	Northern India	"Winter fairs & folk theatre"	820	697	697.00	697	697	697	1	.	.	697	.	.	.	697
2	01JUN1855	Urban Bazaar	Eastern India	"Monsoon prep & craft guilds"	650	553	746.67	553	553	1250	2	.	697	553	-144	-20.660	.	1250
3	01APR1855	Cantonment Arcade	Southern India	"Colonial concerts & promenades"	910	1092	971.33	1092	1092	1092	1	.	.	1092	.	.	.	1092
4	01SEP1855	Cantonment Arcade	Western India	"Ganesh festivities & parades"	1050	1260	879.33	1260	1260	2352	2	.	1092	1260	168	15.385	.	2352
5	01MAY1855	Caravanserai Court	Central India	"Caravans & storytellers"	700	595	954.33	595	595	595	1	.	.	595	.	.	.	595
6	01OCT1855	Caravanserai Court	Southern India	"Dussehra/Diwali bazaars"	1180	1416	1155.67	1416	1416	2011	2	.	595	1416	821	137.983	.	2011
7	01FEB1855	Weekly Haat	Eastern India	"Weavers' conclaves & kirtans"	760	646	671.50	646	646	646	1	.	.	646	.	.	.	646
8	01JUL1855	Weekly Haat	Northern India	"Monsoon haat & folk music"	690	587	578.33	587	587	1233	2	.	646	587	-59	-9.133	.	1233
9	01MAR1855	Princely/Royal Arcade	Western India	"Spring courtly soirees"	980	1176	839.67	1176	1176	1176	1	.	.	1176	.	.	.	1176
10	01AUG1855	Princely/Royal Arcade	Central India	"Pre-festival exhibitions"	930	791	643.67	791	791	1967	2	.	1176	791	-385	-32.738	.	1967

6) FINAL VIEW: merge SQL MAs and DATA step transforms

proc sql;

  create table hist_final as

  select a.Date, a.MallType, a.Region, a.Activities, a.Footfall, a.Season,

         a.SeasonalIndex, a.AdjFootfall,

         b.MA3_Overall, b.MA3_ByType,

         c.diff1, c.pctchg, c.CUMSUM, c.MA3_DataStep

  from hist_mall_1855 as a

  left join hist_sql_ma as b

    on a.Date=b.Date and a.MallType=b.MallType

  left join hist_expand_like as c

    on a.Date=c.Date and a.MallType=c.MallType

  order by Date, MallType;

quit;

proc print data=hist_final;

run;

OUTPUT:

Obs	Date	MallType	Region	Activities	Footfall	Season	SeasonalIndex	AdjFootfall	MA3_Overall	MA3_ByType	diff1	pctchg	CUMSUM	MA3_DataStep
1	01JAN1855	Urban Bazaar	Northern India	"Winter fairs & folk theatre"	820	Off-Peak	0.85	697	697.00	697	.	.	697	.
2	01FEB1855	Weekly Haat	Eastern India	"Weavers' conclaves & kirtans"	760	Off-Peak	0.85	646	671.50	646	.	.	646	.
3	01MAR1855	Princely/Royal Arcade	Western India	"Spring courtly soirees"	980	Peak	1.20	1176	839.67	1176	.	.	1176	.
4	01APR1855	Cantonment Arcade	Southern India	"Colonial concerts & promenades"	910	Peak	1.20	1092	971.33	1092	.	.	1092	.
5	01MAY1855	Caravanserai Court	Central India	"Caravans & storytellers"	700	Off-Peak	0.85	595	954.33	595	.	.	595	.
6	01JUN1855	Urban Bazaar	Eastern India	"Monsoon prep & craft guilds"	650	Off-Peak	0.85	553	746.67	553	-144	-20.660	1250	.
7	01JUL1855	Weekly Haat	Northern India	"Monsoon haat & folk music"	690	Off-Peak	0.85	587	578.33	587	-59	-9.133	1233	.
8	01AUG1855	Princely/Royal Arcade	Central India	"Pre-festival exhibitions"	930	Off-Peak	0.85	791	643.67	791	-385	-32.738	1967	.
9	01SEP1855	Cantonment Arcade	Western India	"Ganesh festivities & parades"	1050	Peak	1.20	1260	879.33	1260	168	15.385	2352	.
10	01OCT1855	Caravanserai Court	Southern India	"Dussehra/Diwali bazaars"	1180	Peak	1.20	1416	1155.67	1416	821	137.983	2011	.

7) PLOT: Time-series footfall (Adjusted) grouped by type

proc sort data=hist_final out=plotdata;

  by Date MallType;

run;

proc print data=plotdata;

run;

OUTPUT:

Obs	Date	MallType	Region	Activities	Footfall	Season	SeasonalIndex	AdjFootfall	MA3_Overall	MA3_ByType	diff1	pctchg	CUMSUM	MA3_DataStep
1	01JAN1855	Urban Bazaar	Northern India	"Winter fairs & folk theatre"	820	Off-Peak	0.85	697	697.00	697	.	.	697	.
2	01FEB1855	Weekly Haat	Eastern India	"Weavers' conclaves & kirtans"	760	Off-Peak	0.85	646	671.50	646	.	.	646	.
3	01MAR1855	Princely/Royal Arcade	Western India	"Spring courtly soirees"	980	Peak	1.20	1176	839.67	1176	.	.	1176	.
4	01APR1855	Cantonment Arcade	Southern India	"Colonial concerts & promenades"	910	Peak	1.20	1092	971.33	1092	.	.	1092	.
5	01MAY1855	Caravanserai Court	Central India	"Caravans & storytellers"	700	Off-Peak	0.85	595	954.33	595	.	.	595	.
6	01JUN1855	Urban Bazaar	Eastern India	"Monsoon prep & craft guilds"	650	Off-Peak	0.85	553	746.67	553	-144	-20.660	1250	.
7	01JUL1855	Weekly Haat	Northern India	"Monsoon haat & folk music"	690	Off-Peak	0.85	587	578.33	587	-59	-9.133	1233	.
8	01AUG1855	Princely/Royal Arcade	Central India	"Pre-festival exhibitions"	930	Off-Peak	0.85	791	643.67	791	-385	-32.738	1967	.
9	01SEP1855	Cantonment Arcade	Western India	"Ganesh festivities & parades"	1050	Peak	1.20	1260	879.33	1260	168	15.385	2352	.
10	01OCT1855	Caravanserai Court	Southern India	"Dussehra/Diwali bazaars"	1180	Peak	1.20	1416	1155.67	1416	821	137.983	2011	.

title1 "Cultural Footfall in Historic Indian Market Spaces — 1855";

title2 "Adjusted Footfall by Market ('Mall') Type with Seasonal Effects";

proc sgplot data=plotdata;

  series x=Date y=AdjFootfall / group=MallType markers;

  xaxis label="Month in 1855" grid;

  yaxis label="Adjusted Footfall (Seasonally Adjusted)" grid;

run;

title; footnote;

OUTPUT:

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